2012 Oscar Nomination Predictions

     Being a big movie fan, the Oscars are always a big event for me. I will break out a scoresheet every year, make predictions and then pull for my picks, just like it was the March Madness basketball tournament. More times than not, my selections do not win but I still pull for them. The thing I love about the Oscars, and the awards season in general, most is they introduce me to movies I might not normally catch. Every theater will have the big-budget, special effects laden blockbuster when it comes out, but there is a whole slew of movies that are not seen by movie going audiences unless you live in one of the major metropolitan areas. The one exception for a lot of these films is if they get attention during awards season which will lead to most of these films being released to a broader audience, and that is a good thing. So I encourage people that if you have never heard of some of these movies, do some research on them and look deeper, you may just find something that knocks your socks off. That being said, a lot of these films I have not seen either. If I hear of a movie getting strong Oscar talk, I will usually hold off on seeing it, especially if it is getting Best Picture talk. The reason I do this is because of the AMC Best Picture Showcase, which has become a highlight of the movie year for me. AMC shows all of the nominations over the course of one or two weekends for one price. I have participated in this the last 3 years and I look forward to this year as well. Even though I haven't see a lot of them, I do intend to, and because I keep up with all the critics and guilds awards leading up to the Oscars, I think I can make some pretty decent predictions as to what will happen. So without further ado, let's break out our crystal ball and see what we think will happen tomorrow morning (Tuesday, the 24th) at 8:30 am.

BEST PICTURE:   This category is different than it has been in the past. For a long time, there were 5 nominations each year. Then the last two years, they went to 10 nominations. Well, this year, there can be anywhere between 5 and 10. A movie must receive a first place vote from 5% of the Academy voters to be nominated. The general consensus is that there will be 7 or 8 nominations. Due to the dominance so far of two movies during awards season, I'm going to predict there will be 7 nominations. The Artist and The Descendants are no-brainers. Both have cleaned up during awards season so far and are the odds on favorite heading into Oscar night. I also feel like The Help and Hugo are pretty safe as well. That gives us four. The Academy loves Woody Allen so I'm going to make Midnight in Paris my fifth choice. After that it gets tricky. One movie I have seen this year, and absolutely loved, was Moneyball.  It has lost some of its momentum but I still think it sneaks in there. That leaves one more film. I'm going to go out on a limb and say The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo gets the spot over War Horse, The Tree of Life and Bridesmaids.

BEST DIRECTOR:  The director nominations tend to fall hand-in-hand with the Picture nominees. Martin Scorsese (Hugo), Alexander Payne (The Descendants) and Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) are locks. Once again, the Academy loves Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) so I look for him to pick up the fourth spot. For the final nod, I'm going to go with David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo). A lot of people feel he was robbed last year for The Social Network (me included), so while he has no shot at winning, I think they will reward him with a nomination.


BEST ACTOR:    This is really a 3-man race for the prize, but four actors look to be locks for a spot. George Clooney (The Descendants) has been racking up most of the early awards. Brad Pitt (Moneyball), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), and Michael Fassbender (Shame) also appear to be set. The last spot is a toss-up. I think the Academy is finally going to reward Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy). If it's not him, Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar) or Ryan Gosling (Drive) could benefit.

BEST ACTRESS:    This will be one of the real mysteries come Oscar night. Three ladies have split the victories in the early awards season. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) and Viola Davis (The Help) will battle it out on the big stage. This will be one of the toughest predictions of the night. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) should be rewarded with a nomination even though she has no chance. The final spot is a tough call. I'm going to go with Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), but watch out for Charlize Theron (Young Adult) and Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids) as possible spoilers.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:   This is one of the few awards that appears to be locked up already. Christopher Plummer (Beginners) has pretty well swept all the awards so far and an Oscar looks to be in his future. Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn) and Albert Brooks (Drive) seem like sure bets also. For the final spot, I'm going to say Nick Nolte (Warrior) over Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  Octavia Spencer (The Help) has been on a role this awards season and should be the favorite on Oscar night. Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) and Jessica Chastain (The Help) will try to pull off the upset. For the last spot, I will go with Berenice Bejo (The Artist).